Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Abstract

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping climate conditions over the North Atlantic region and beyond, and its future stability is a matter of concern. While the AMOC stability when faced with surface freshwater forcing (FWF) has been thoroughly investigated, its equilibrium response to changing CO2 remains largely unexplored, precluding a comprehensive understanding of its stability under global warming. Here we use an Earth system model to explore the stability of the AMOC when faced with combined changes in FWF in the North Atlantic and atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 180 and 560 ppm. We find four different AMOC states associated with qualitatively different convection patterns. Apart from an “Off” AMOC state with no North Atlantic deep-water formation and a “Modern”-like AMOC with deep water forming in the Labrador and Nordic seas as observed at present, we find a “Weak” AMOC state with convection occurring south of 55° N and a “Strong” AMOC state characterized by deep-water formation extending into the Arctic. The Off and Weak states are stable for the entire range of CO2 but only for positive FWF. The Modern state is stable under higher than pre-industrial CO2 for a range of positive FWF and for lower CO2 only for negative FWF. Finally, the Strong state is stable only for CO2 above 280 ppm and FWF < 0.1 Sv. Generally, the strength of the AMOC increases with increasing CO2 and decreases with increasing FWF. Our AMOC stability landscape helps to explain AMOC instability in colder climates, and although it is not directly applicable to the fundamentally transient AMOC response to global warming on a centennial timescale, it can provide useful information about the possible long-term fate of the AMOC. For instance, while under pre-industrial conditions the AMOC is monostable in the model, the Off state also becomes stable for CO2 concentrations above ∼ 400 ppm, suggesting that an AMOC shutdown in a warmer climate might be irreversible.