Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

Abstract

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

Keywords

• coronavirus
• COVID-19
• reproduction number
• transmission rate
• reported and unreported cases
• interventions