Mathematical prediction of the Aldan river freezing based on prehistory in 2000-2022

Abstract

The possibility of forecasting the freezing of the Aldan River in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is considered. The opening of winter roads directly depends on the time of freezing. In this paper, a regression analysis of the ice-freezing dates of the Aldan River near the settlement of Khandyga was performed on the basis of statistical data. The data were provided by the Federal State Budgetary Institution “Yakutsk Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring” (the authors express their gratitude to the monitoring department and library of YASUMS for many years of hydrological observations).

Keywords

• winter road
• north supply
• predictive model
• markov process
• logistics