Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Dynamics by CA-ANN and CA-Markov Model Approaches: A Case Study of Ranipet Town, India

Abstract

The present study analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in the Land Use Land Cover types within Ranipet Municipal town in Ranipet District, Tamil Nadu State, India, using two different platforms (QGIS and IDRISI Selva v.17.0). The possible parameters driven the net changes in the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) types were also incorporated for the analysis. Results revealed the positive net changes in the built-up area are about 26.8%, and combined other classes like vegetation, barren land, and water bodies have net negative changes during 1997-2019. Particularly barren land was found to have a reduction of 17.4% due to the massive industrialization in the study area. Further, the LULC maps were used for future prediction (2029) using the dynamic models of CA-ANN (Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network) and CA-Markov. Predicted maps yielded a kappa index of 81.6% and 82.6% for CA-ANN and CA-Markov, representing their respective accuracy levels. The CA-Markov model is extended for determining the probable long-term changes for 2080 in LULC with a kappa index of 76.2%. Compared to the CA-ANN model using the QGIS platform, CA-Markov provided better analysis, particularly from one cell to the other. According to the survey and the ground truth in the locality, industrialization and occupational shift were the most influential drivers of LULC dynamics. Moreover, the results of this study assist the stakeholders in the decision-making process for future sustainable land use management.

Keywords

• lulc, industrialization, land degradation, probability approach, ca-ann, ca-markov