Integrated modeling of a complex oil rim development scenario under subsurface uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract Evaluation of the economic benefit of field development projects in the oil and gas industry is naturally subject to subsurface uncertainties and risks. While high economic returns from produced volumes compensated for the lack of robust uncertainty estimates in the past, lower margins in tight market conditions and more complex project designs require increased efforts in delivering reliable uncertainty estimates for improving reservoir management decision support in times to come. An increasing number of field development projects include rigorous uncertainty quantification workflows based on parameterized subsurface uncertainties. Estimation and reduction of prediction uncertainty has no value unless it can potentially influence a decision process. This requires an integrated workflow design across disciplines and a proper risk mitigation plan. This work presents the implementation of an uncertainty workflow in reservoir management with a focus on reservoir modeling and simulation. Practical workflow design steps and intermediate milestones are discussed for generating alternative reservoir model realizations including historical production data. Calibrated model realizations define the basis for prediction estimates of a predefined field development plan. Practical steps are discussed with application to a complex oil rim development for an existing reservoir with long production history. This study aimed at an uncertainty assessment of a field development plan and a proposal for optimized relocations of infill wells considering multiple geological realizations. In conclusion, this work describes examples, experiences, and recommendations for an industry implementation for a risk assessment of a field development plan under subsurface uncertainties.

Keywords

• Uncertainty quantification
• History matching
• Estimation prediction uncertainty
• Integrated modeling
• Field development planning under uncertainty
• Reservoir management