Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study

Abstract

Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of Rt = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with Rt. Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.

Keywords

• Mumps
• Transmissibility
• Meteorological factors
• Correlation
• Time-dependent reproduction number