Granular RBF NN Approach and Statistical Methods Applied to Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Data

Abstract

We examine the ARCH-GARCH models for the forecasting of the bond price time series provided by VUB bank and make comparisons the forecast accuracy with the class of RBF neural network models. A limited statistical or computer science theory exists on how to design the architecture of RBF networks for some specific nonlinear time series, which allows for exhaustive study of the underlying dynamics, and determination of their parameters. To illustrate the forecasting performance of these approaches the learning aspects of RBF networks are presented and an application is included. We show a new approach of function estimation for nonlinear time series model by means of a granular neural network based on Gaussian activation function modelled by cloud concept. In a comparative study is shown, that the presented approach is able to model and predict high frequency data with reasonable accuracy and more efficient than statistical methods.

Keywords

• Time series
• classes of ARCH-GARCH models
• volatility
• forecasting
• neural networks
• cloud concept