Construction and validation of a nomogram for blood transfusion after open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly: a cross-sectional study

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Few studies have focused on the risk factors leading to postoperative blood transfusion after open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of proximal humeral fractures (PHFs) in the elderly. Therefore, we designed this study to explore potential risk factors of blood transfusion after ORIF for PHFs. We have also established a nomogram model to integrate and quantify our research results and give feedback. Methods In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of elderly PHF patients undergoing ORIF from January 2020 to December 2021. We have established a multivariate regression model and nomograph. The prediction performance and consistency of the model were evaluated by the consistency coefficient and calibration curve, respectively. Results 162 patients met our inclusion criteria and were included in the final study. The following factors are related to the increased risk of transfusion after ORIF: time to surgery, fibrinogen levels, intraoperative blood loss, and surgical duration. Conclusions Our patient-specific transfusion risk calculator uses a robust multivariable model to predict transfusion risk.The resulting nomogram can be used as a screening tool to identify patients with high transfusion risk and provide necessary interventions for these patients (such as preoperative red blood cell mobilization, intraoperative autologous blood transfusion, etc.).

Keywords

• Proximal humeral fractures
• Blood transfusion
• Risk factor
• Open reduction and internal fixation
• Nomogram
• Prediction model