Exploring the causal relationships and pathways between ecological environmental quality and influencing Factors: A comprehensive analysis

Abstract

The ecological environment is closely related to natural conditions, climate change, and human activities. However, existing research predominantly concentrates on evaluating the direct impacts of various factors on the ecological environment, yet lacks an in-depth exploration of their causal relationships and pathways. This paper introduces a new perspective to research in this field by incorporating spatial cross-sectional data analysis methods. The study utilized the 2020 China’s High-resolution Eco-Environmental Quality (CHEQ) dataset to evaluate the spatial differentiation characteristics of Ecological Environmental Quality (EEQ) within the western urban agglomeration of Guangdong Province. A framework of “terrain-urbanization-climate” influencing factors was constructed, and the Geographical convergent cross mapping (GCCM) method was employed to infer the causal relationship between EEQ and influencing factors. Additionally, the spatial distribution characteristics of influencing factors on ecological environment quality were studied using the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Model (MGWR). The results indicate that seven influencing factors including Elevation, Population, Precipitation, TEMP, TMMX, TMMN, and Slope have clear causal relationships with EEQ and exhibit bidirectional coupling relationships. There exist complex causal relationships among influencing factors, revealing the interaction mechanisms and causal pathways among multiple factors in the ecological environment system. These analyses enrich our understanding of the intricate and complex relationships between the ecological environment and influencing factors, providing a valuable reference for ecological protection and sustainable development.

Keywords

• Ecological Environment Quality
• Influencing factors
• Causal inference
• Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping
• Causal pathway