Assessment of the Resilience of a Complex Network for Crude Oil Transportation on the Maritime Silk Road

Abstract

As one of the most strategically important natural resources, crude oil can be dangerous to transport by sea. The resilience of a maritime transport network denotes the ability of the system to withstand damage and remain operational after disturbances, representing the invulnerability of the network and its ability to recover from harm. In this study, we built a crude oil transportation network titled the Maritime Silk Road using Automatic Identification System (AIS) sensor data, designed a resilience assessment framework based on complex network theory, and assessed the resilience of the maritime crude oil transportation network from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives with the help of complex network metrics and a resilience model. The results show that the topology of the crude oil transportation network has a significant impact on its resilience, in that network density and centrality are negatively related to network resilience, whereas network connectivity and size are positively related to resilience. Subsequently, the resilience of crude oil transportation networks declines at a steady rate under random attacks but declines sharply under intentional attacks. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of invulnerability and recovery in the context of resilience concludes that strengthening small and medium-sized ports in the network is important to enhance network resilience. These results can provide reference and decision support for port planning, route design, optimization, and form a foundation for a more secure and reliable maritime transportation network system.

Keywords

• Maritime Silk Road
• crude oil transportation network
• network resilience
• complex network
• AIS data