Potential impacts of climate extremes on snow under global warming conditions in the Mongolian Plateau

Abstract

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the possible changes in mean temperature in the Mongolian Plateau associated with the 1.5 and 2°C global warming targets and how snow changes in the Mongolian Plateau when the mean global warming is well below 2°C or limited to 1.5°C. Design/methodology/approach – In total, 30 model simulations of consecutive temperature and precipitation days from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are assessed in comparison with the 111 meteorological monitoring stations from 1961–2005. Multi-model ensemble and model relative error were used to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 models. Slope and the Mann–Kendall test were used to analyze the magnitude of the trends and evaluate the significance of trends of snow depth (SD) from 1981 to 2014 in the Mongolian Plateau. Findings – Some models perform well, even better than the majority (80%) of the models over the Mongolian Plateau, particularly HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM, BNU-ESM and GFDL-ESM2M, which simulate best in consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. Emphasis zones of WSDI on SD were deeply analysed in the 1.5 and 2 °C global warming period above pre-industrial conditions, because it alone has a significant negative relation with SD among the four indices. It is warmer than before in the Mongolian Plateau, particularly in the southern part of the Mongolian Plateau, indicating less SD. Originality/value – Providing climate extremes and SD data sets with different spatial-temporal scales over the Mongolian Plateau. Zoning SD potential risk areas and proposing adaptations to promote regional sustainable development.

Keywords

• Adaptation
• Impacts
• 1.5°C and 2°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions
• Consecutive temperature and precipitation days
• Mongolian Plateau