Forecast Analysis of Pollutant Emissions of Cruise Ship Routes in Western Mediterranean

Abstract

The cruise shipping industry has a steadfast commitment to the environmentally sustainable operation of ships through many initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a forecast analysis of the emission inventory of NOx, SO2, and CO2 during the sailing phase associated with cruise routes in the Western Mediterranean. Five scenarios were raised to obtain projections about future emissions considering the evolution of cruise traffic; the implementation of the Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) in the Mediterranean by 1 May 2025, and variations in the specific fuel consumption of the engines of the cruise ships. To this extent, a time series of cruise calls during 2019 in Mediterranean ports is used to identify the main routes and their associated emission inventory. Network analysis is applied to identify the routes associated with the cruise calls, and the emission inventory is estimated using a bottom-up approach. A total of 292 cruise routes were identified. The estimations reveal that the emissions of the cruise activities assessed are approximately equivalent to 0.58% of NOx, 0.28% of SO2, and 1% of CO2 of the entirety of the emissions associated with maritime transport at the European level in 2019. The projection of the scenario with the highest cruise activity and the SECA being enforced leads to a reduction of 77% of the emissions of SO2 considering the activity of 2019. The research conducted enables us to assess the environmental impact of the intense cruise ship activity registered in the Mediterranean and the positive footprint of the implementation of new regulations on emissions.

Keywords

• cruise ships
• network analysis
• activity-based method
• shipping emissions
• cruise routes
• emission control area