Market Reactions to U.S. Financial Indices: A Comparison of the GFC versus the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

Abstract

This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times.

Keywords

• GFC
• COVID-19 crisis
• financial indices
• U.S. economy
• Markov switching model
• economic shocks