Future Orienteering Evaluation Model: forecasting, foresight and anticipation indices

Abstract

Abstract The following paper adopts the term Future Orienteering to indicate the attitude of openness and preparedness to the future of individuals, communities and organisations. If Futures Studies wants to become an independent field of research, future skills need to be developed with appropriate training paths, and future attitudes and strategies need to be evaluated accurately. Thus, considering the necessity of a measurement system for the evaluation of strategic foresight and future-based activities, this article illustrates a new theoretical model, where special emphasis is placed on the distinction between Forecasting, Foresight and Anticipation, according to the Theory of Anticipation presented in (Poli, Introducing anticipation. In: Poli R (ed) Handbook of anticipation, 2019a); (Poli, Lavorare con Il futuro: idee e strumenti per governarel’incertezza, 2019b); (Poli, Introduction to anticipation studies, 2017). The result is a battery of three synthetic indexes, immediately readable to allow easy comparisons. Here, the following model described represents a preliminary stage in the development of an evaluation system, indeed few suggestions for use will be provided.

Keywords

• Uncertainty
• Foresight
• Anticipation
• Forecast
• Future orienteering
• Futures indexes