Global optimization of a numerical two-layer model using observed data: a case study of the 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami

Abstract

Abstract Following the eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau, a considerable landslide occurred on the southwestern part of the volcano and, upon entering the sea, generated a large tsunami within the Sunda Strait, Indonesia, on December 22, 2018. This tsunami traveled ~ 5 km across the strait basin and inundated the shorelines of Sumatra and Java with a vertical runup reaching 13 m. Following the event, observed field data, GPS measurements of the inundation, and multibeam echo soundings of the bathymetry within the strait were collected and publicly provided. Using this dataset, numerical modeling of the tsunami was conducted using the two-layer (soil and water) TUNAMI-N2 model based on a combination of landslide sources and bathymetry data. The two-layer model was implemented to nest the grid system using the finest grid size of 20 m. To constrain the unknown landslide parameters, the differential evolution (DE) global optimization algorithm was applied, which resulted in a parameter set that minimized the deviation from the measured bathymetry after the event. The DE global optimization procedure was effective at determining the landslide parameters for the model with the minimum deviation from the measured seafloor. The lowest deviation from the measured bathymetry was obtained for the best-fitting parameters: a maximum landslide thickness of 301.2 m and a landslide time of 10.8 min. The landslide volume of 0.182 km3 estimated by the best-fitting parameters shows that the tsunami flow depth could have reached 3–10 m along the shore with a K value of 0.89, although the simulated flow depths were underestimated in comparison with the observation data. According to the waveforms, the general wave pattern was well reproduced at tide gauges during the event. A large number of objective function evaluations were necessary to locate the minimum with the DE procedure to fix the grid cell size to 20 m; this limited the accuracy of the obtained parameter values for the two-layer model. Moreover, considering the generalizations in the modeling of landslide movements, the impact landslide time and thickness must be carefully calculated to obtain a suitable accuracy.

Keywords

• 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami
• Subaerial-submarine landslide
• Global optimization of a two-layer model