Are the Financial Markets Sensitive to Hydrological Risk? Evidence from the Bovespa

Abstract

This research analyzes the BOVESPA stock market response to the worst drought occurred in the last 100 years in Brazil. For this purpose, we conducted a standard event study analysis in order to assess the financial response to such hydrological risk on a sample of seven Brazilian agri-food firms. We found statistically significant negative cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) around the drought official announcement for different event windows used. Particularly, the highest impact was obtained for the narrowest temporary window, five days around the event disclosure. Moreover, we also found the drought announcement affects even more negatively those companies that sell perishable products, five out of seven in our sample, versus those selling nonperishable ones by running a two-sample t-test on CAARs. This study brings awareness to the climate change impact into the emerging financial markets and the risk faced by shareholders when investing in the agri-food sector, not only in Brazil but also in other Latin American countries, due to the increasing probability to suffer from droughts.

Keywords

• droughts
• hydrological risk
• agri-food sector
• event study
• financial markets
• BOVESPA