ML-based regionalization of climate variables to forecast seasonal precipitation for water resources management

Abstract

Numerous dams and reservoirs have been constructed in South Korea, considering the distribution of seasonal precipitation which highly deviates from the actual one with high precipitation amount in summer and very low amount in other seasons. These water-related structures should be properly managed in order to meet seasonal demands of water resources wherein the forecasting of seasonal precipitation plays a critical role. However, owing to the impact of diverse complex weather systems, seasonal precipitation forecasting has been a challenging task. The current study proposes a novel procedure for forecasting seasonal precipitation by: (1) regionalizing the influential climate variables to the seasonal precipitation with k -means clustering; (2) extracting the features from the regionalized climate variables with machine learning-based algorithms such as principal component analysis (PCA), independent component analysis (ICA), and Autoencoder; and (3) finally regressing the extracted features with one linear model of generalized linear model (GLM) and another nonlinear model of support vector machine (SVM). Two globally gridded climate variables-mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and sea surface temperature (SST)-were teleconnected with the seasonal precipitation of South Korea, denoted as accumulated seasonal precipitation (ASP). Results indicated that k -means clustering successfully regionalized the highly correlated climate variables with the ASP, and all three extraction algorithms-PCA, ICA, and Autoencoder-combined with the GLM and SVM models presented their superiority in different seasons. In particular, the PCA combined with the linear GLM model performed better, and the Autoencoder combined with the nonlinear SVM model did better. It can be concluded that the proposed forecasting procedure of the seasonal precipitation, combined with several ML-based algorithms, can be a good alternative.

Keywords

• regionalization
• drought forecasting
• PCA
• ICA
• autoencoder
• machine learning