TRANSPORT AND ECONOMIC BALANCE AND ITS ROLE IN THE COORDINATION OF TRANSPORT PLANNING DURING THE DIGITALIZATION ERA

Abstract

Econometrics tools in framework of Transport and Economic Balance (TEB) for transport planning and forecasting are aimed at improving transport links and transport connectivity via accounting the ratio between the volume of production and consumption of goods and the demand for transport services for their import and export. The TEB’s econometrics model includes the basic balance equations that define its structure and formation rules. The transport and economic balance of the Russian Federation aggregate the actual and forecast freight flows and their correspondence between the regions of the country (OD-matrix) by rail, road, inland water and maritime transport by type of commodities. The balance of actual freight traffic built for 2007-2016 based on statistics for industrial production, domestic and external trade, construction, agriculture and energy, as well as statistics for rail, maritime, inland water and road transport. The forecast of the cargo base and freight traffic is built for the period up to 2030 using the scenarios and forecast estimations by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, as well as the indices of regional economic development, considering the technological and transport connectivity of main cargo generating industries. The TEB will make it possible to calculate and substantiate the predicted impacts on the infrastructure considering various options for its reconstruction and development, changing routes, optimally distribute the forecasted flows over the network, considering the predicted characteristics of throughput, speeds and predictability of delivery time, workload of transport network and elimination of bottlenecks.

Keywords

• Big Data
• Freight Flows
• Forecasting
• Transport
• Transport Policy
• Transport Statistics
• Transport and Economic Connectivity
• Transport and Economic Balance
• Transport Planning
• Transport Models