Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wild Relatives of the Potato Family (Solanaceae) in Iran with Emphasis on Food Security

Abstract

The Solanaceae family with 49 species of 10 genera is one of the important nutritional, economical, medicinal and ornamental families in which six genera of them are classified in the group of wild relatives. Predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant species is important for their management and conservation. In this study, the effects of climate change on this family was investigated with a conservation approach, using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Future spatial distribution of this family was predicted by MaxEnt model under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2080 in R software. In general, the performance of the model for different species was good or excellent based on the area under the curve index (AUC ≥ 0.8), showing high statistical reliability of the distribution modeling. Predicting the distribution of all species in the face of climate change and under various future scenarios showed both decrease in the current original habitats and increase in new habitats. However, the ratio of the increase and decrease was different in various species. In Atropa acuminate, Solanum surratense, Datura stramonium, Hyoscyamus niger, Hyoscyamus reticulatus, Physalis alkekengi and Solanum dulcamara the ratio of decrease was more than increase, implying the negative effects of climate change on these species and may cause species extinction. However, the ratio of increase was more than decrease in Datura innoxia,Physalis divaricate,Solanum alatum and Withania somnifera, showing a positive effect and climate change may cause species expansion.

Keywords

• climate change
• wild relative
• species distribution modeling
• conservation