A Holistic Integration of Conventional and Machine Learning Techniques to Enhance the Analysis of Power Transformer Health Index Considering Data Unavailability

Abstract

Health index is an essential tool to evaluate the condition of power transformers. Generally, there are two methodologies to evaluate the health index of power transformers: conventional methods and machine learning-based approaches. The main challenge in employing the health index to assess transformer’s condition is the lack of supporting data, which hinders its ability to accurately reflect the actual health condition of the transformers. While several studies on estimating the transformers health index using machine learning techniques can be found in the literatures, not much attention was given to the cumulative impact of multiple data unavailability on the calculation’s accuracy. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of health index predictions using two machine learning methods: specifically, regression and classification against conventional methods of weighting and scoring. Furthermore, the paper presents some strategies to overcome the unavailability of multiple data. Six methods are presented and evaluated across 15 missing data scenarios to assess their effectiveness compared with scenarios featuring complete data. Results reveal that Gradient Boosting Regression has the most accurate accuracy in predicting the health index with a 95%, assuming complete data, and 97.87% considering data unavailability. The paper also presents an economic analysis to highlight the profitability associated with predicting missing data compared with the certainty level and evaluation using asset owner interpretation to assess the feasibility of the proposed method. The main contribution of the paper is the presentation of a comprehensive view for asset owners to make informed decisions in case of data unavailability.

Keywords

• Power transformers
• health index
• machine learning
• condition monitoring
• asset management