Kawasaki Disease and Respiratory Viruses: Ecological Spatiotemporal Analysis

Abstract

Abstract BackgroundKawasaki disease is an uncommon vasculitis affecting young children. Its etiology is not completely understood, although infections have been frequently postulated as the triggers. Respiratory viruses, specifically, have often been implicated as causative agents for Kawasaki disease presentations. ObjectiveWe aimed to conduct an ecological spatiotemporal analysis to determine whether Kawasaki disease incidence was related to community respiratory virus circulation in a shared region and population, and to describe viral associations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. MethodsWe obtained independent statewide data sets of hospital admissions of Kawasaki disease and respiratory multiplex polymerase chain reaction tests performed at two large hospital networks in Victoria, Australia, from July 2011 to November 2021. We studied spatiotemporal relationships by negative binomial regression analysis of the monthly incidence of Kawasaki disease and the rate of positive respiratory polymerase chain reaction tests in different regions of Victoria. Peak viral seasons (95th percentile incidence) were compared to median viral circulation (50th percentile incidence) to calculate peak season increased rate ratios. ResultsWhile no seasonal trend in Kawasaki disease incidence was identified throughout the study period, we found a 1.52 (99% CI 1.27‐1.82) and a 1.43 (99% CI 1.17‐1.73) increased rate ratio of Kawasaki disease presentations in association with human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus circulation, respectively, before the COVID-19 pandemic. No respiratory viral associations with Kawasaki disease were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. ConclusionsOur large ecological analysis demonstrates novel spatiotemporal relationships between human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus circulation with Kawasaki disease. The disappearance of these associations in the COVID-19 pandemic may reflect the reduced circulation of non–SARS-CoV-2 viruses during this period, supporting the prepandemic associations identified in this study. The roles of human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus in Kawasaki disease etiology warrant further investigation.