Maximizing the environmental benefits of gas power development in China: A multidisciplinary modeling approach

Abstract

Summary: China, holding nearly half of the global coal-fired power capacity, must shift from its coal-centric energy system to meet climate and air quality goals. This study explores the optimal utilization of natural gas by evaluating the environmental and economic costs of gas- and coal-fired power using plant-level data and a multidisciplinary modeling approach. We find that gas power has substantially lower air pollution costs (0.77 versus 12.2 cents/kWh) and moderately lower GHG costs (2.8 versus 4.5 cents/kWh), with an average environmental advantage of 12.1 cents/kWh and a social benefit of 10.4 cents/kWh when considering LCOE. The benefits vary spatially with the highest benefits in east-central China. Prioritizing substitution in regions with high environmental benefits could reduce SO2, NOx, and PM emissions by 28%, 15%, and 56%, respectively, offering a 52% higher environmental benefit than existing gas power plans. This study provides quantitative support for gas power development in China.

Keywords

• Earth sciences
• Environmental science
• Energy policy