Study on the distribution of average wind speeds at a mountainous bridge site for structural durability design

Abstract

Abstract Conventional wind speed distribution methods (e.g., Rayleigh distribution and Weibull distribution) may not adequately capture complex characteristics of wind fields in mountainous areas. To address this problem, this study proposes a semi-parametric mix method for modeling the distribution of average wind speeds based on the combination of nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). In the proposed method, KDE focuses on capturing the distribution in the main part of average wind speeds, while GPD aims at performing the distribution in terms of those in the extreme part. The segment point (i.e., the threshold) between KDE and GPD distributions is determined based on the combination of conditional mean excesses criterion and empirical rule. Meanwhile, the selection of modeling parameters should ensure that the mix distribution model is continuous and differentiable at the identified threshold point. Then, the commonly-used conditional probability model is further introduced to describe the wind direction distribution. Finally, a case study based on the measured 10-min average wind speeds at a mountainous bridge site is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results indicate that: (1) the distribution of omnidirectional average wind speeds in the mountainous bridge site exhibits an obviously single-peak characteristic, while those considering wind directionality present a certain bimodal characteristic; (2) the proposed method can effectively describe wind speed distributions with different statistical characteristics, and the fitting accuracy outperforms the frequently-employed Weibull distribution model.

Keywords

• Wind speed distribution
• Kernel density estimation
• Generalized Pareto distribution
• Structural durability design
• Mountainous wind fields