The Mathematical Simulation of South Korea’s Financial and Economic Impacts from Real Estate Bubbles: Lessons from the China Evergrande Collapse

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial repercussions of a real estate bubble burst in South Korea through the application of Bayesian estimation and impulse response function analysis. By utilizing this approach tailored to the specific economic conditions of South Korea, the research effectively captures the complex ripple effects across a range of financial and macroeconomic variables. The results demonstrate that a real estate bubble burst markedly increases financial market risks, leading to heightened liquidity demands within the banking sector and necessitating adjustments in both deposit rates and bond yields. The study also emphasizes the differentiated impacts on patient and impatient households, where wealth losses drive significant shifts in consumption and labor supply behaviors, further constrained by prevailing labor market conditions. Additionally, the broader economic implications are examined, revealing the adverse effects on corporate output and investment, as well as the dynamics of international capital flows that impact foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates. These findings highlight the urgent need for proactive monitoring and policy interventions to mitigate the detrimental effects of real estate bubbles, ensuring financial stability and fostering sustainable economic growth in South Korea.

Keywords

• real estate bubble burst
• Bayesian estimation
• impulse response function analysis
• financial market risks
• macroeconomic variables