Estimation of the Need for Radiation Therapy Services According to the Incidence of Cancer in Colombia to 2035

Abstract

Purpose: To estimate the supply and demand of current and future radiation therapy services by 2035 for Colombia. Methods and Materials: The present study was performed by surveying different radiation therapy services identified in Colombia through the Colombian Association of Radiation Oncology. The demand was estimated based on incident cases and published information on the use of radiation therapy by type of cancer. Future demand was estimated under the assumption that incidence rates do not change and therefore the change in the number of cases is due to the change in the age structure of the Colombian population. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the percentage of radiation therapy use by type of cancer. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to estimate the distribution of cases requiring radiation therapy, the amount of equipment, and the number of staff needed for care with the use of this technology. Results: In total, Colombia has 69 linear accelerators, 2 radiosurgery equipment, 30 high-dose-rate brachytherapy pieces of equipment, 124 radiation therapy oncologists (113 working, 9 not working, and 2 not informed), and 275 radiation therapy technologists as of June 2020. It was estimated that to meet the current cancer burden the country would need a total of 162 radiation therapy oncologists, 121 medical physicists, and 323 radiation therapy technologists and to increase the number of radiation therapy technologists, radiation therapy oncologists, and medical physicists to 491, 246, and 184, respectively, to meet the disease burden by 2035 (73,684-88,743 cases per year). Conclusions: In Colombia it is estimated that there is a deficit of human resources and technology for radiation therapy; therefore, there is need to investment resources from the public and private sectors to provide timely and quality care to cancer patients requiring this treatment.