Modeling Ozone Source Apportionment and Performing Sensitivity Analysis in Summer on the North China Plain

Abstract

In recent years, air quality issues due to fine particulate matter have been sufficiently treated. However, ozone (O3) has now become the primary pollutant in summer on the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, a three-dimensional chemical transport model (the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System, NAQPMS) coupled with an online source apportionment module was applied to investigate the sources of O3 pollution over the NCP. Generally, the NAQPMS adequately captured the observed spatiotemporal features of O3 during the period of July 1st to August 31st in 2017 on the NCP. The results of the source apportionment indicated that the contributions of local emissions and transport from the NCP accounted for the largest proportion of O3, with magnitudes of 25% and 39%, respectively. Compared with those in the average monthly results, the local contribution and regional transport during O3 episodes on the NCP increased by 7% and 10%, respectively. Based on sensitivity tests, two thresholds of the sensitivity indicator P(H2O2)/P(HNO3) were detected, at 0.08 and 0.2. Ozone formation in the urban sites of Beijing, Tianjin, and the southern part of Hebei Province was controlled by VOCs, while the other sites were mainly controlled by NOX. Biogenic emissions contributed approximately 18% to O3 formation in July in the southwestern part of Hebei Province.

Keywords

• O₃
• NCP
• source apportionment
• sensitivity analysis
• biological source contribution