Selection of Temporal Lags for Predicting Riverflow Series from Hydroelectric Plants Using Variable Selection Methods

Abstract

The forecasting of monthly seasonal streamflow time series is an important issue for countries where hydroelectric plants contribute significantly to electric power generation. The main step in the planning of the electric sector’s operation is to predict such series to anticipate behaviors and issues. In general, several proposals of the literature focus just on the determination of the best forecasting models. However, the correct selection of input variables is an essential step for the forecasting accuracy, which in a univariate model is given by the lags of the time series to forecast. This task can be solved by variable selection methods since the performance of the predictors is directly related to this stage. In the present study, we investigate the performances of linear and non-linear filters, wrappers, and bio-inspired metaheuristics, totaling ten approaches. The addressed predictors are the extreme learning machine neural networks, representing the non-linear approaches, and the autoregressive linear models, from the Box and Jenkins methodology. The computational results regarding five series from hydroelectric plants indicate that the wrapper methodology is adequate for the non-linear method, and the linear approaches are better adjusted using filters.

Keywords

• monthly forecasting
• autoregressive model
• wrapper
• bio-inspired metaheuristics extreme learning machines neural networks