The impact of external debt and exchange rate on foreign direct investment in emerging investment markets: new evidence using a PMG-ARDL panel data analysis

Abstract

The primary goal of this research is to examine the impact of external debt, exchange rates, economic growth inflation and tax revenue on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Next-11 (N-11) countries where tax revenue used as a control variable. FDI plays an important role in boosting economic growth in developing countries such as the N-11. This study applied secondary data from 1993 to 2020. The panel unit root test has several criteria to make a decision on the unit root of the selected factors. This study considers the PMG panel ARDL model in the case of mixed orders. The exchange rate affects FDI negatively in the short run but positively in the long run, according to the findings of this study, the coefficient of variable external debt has a positive coefficient and result explains that a one percent raise in external debt tends to raise FDI by 0.46 percent in the long run but the result is not statistically significant. Economic growth has a positive impact on FDI over the long run and inflation has negative impact in the long run. By using the Kao cointegration test, a long-run association was found, and the ECT between the variables and the rate of adjustment was 27%. However, this study has the potential to have an impact on economic areas like global trade, global economics, public finance, and foreign direct investment decision-making.

Keywords

• Exchange rate
• external debt
• foreign direct investment
• next-11 countries
• tax revenue
• Dr David McMillan, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK