The Short- and Long-Term Anticipation of Prostate Cancer Incidence in Korea: Based on Social Aging Trends and Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Rate during the Last Decade

Abstract

The current incidence of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which plays a crucial role in detecting prostate cancer (PCa) in an aged population, is low in Korea. Reflecting these epidemiologic characteristics, we estimated the short- and long-term incidences of PCa. A regression equation model was extracted based on two critical pieces of information: (1) the distribution of newly detected PCa cases in each age group of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and over 80s from a recent period (2006–2020), and (2) the PSA testing rate (PSAr) from the previous decade (2006–2016) for each age subgroup. The incidence increased fourfold (4533 in 2006 to 16,815 in 2020), with each age subgroup accounting for 7.9% (50s), 31.4% (60s), 43.0% (70s), and 17.1% (over 80s) of cases in 2020. PSAr increased by an average of 1.08% annually. If these trends are maintained, 28,822 new cases will be diagnosed in 2030 (expected PSAr: 14.4%) and 40,478 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 26.4%). If a public PSA screening were implemented for men only in their 60s (assuming a PSAr of 60% in the 60s) and 70s (assuming a PSAr of 80% in the 70s) in 2030, 37,503 cases in 2030 (expected PSAr: 23.1%) and 43,719 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 29.9%) would be estimated. According to the projection, the incidence of PCa will increase twofold by 2034 compared to 2020. If national screening were only conducted in the 60s and 70s, a higher detection of almost threefold would be expected by 2040.

Keywords

• incidence
• prostate cancer
• screening