Characteristics and dynamic analysis of the February 2021 long-runout disaster chain triggered by massive rock and ice avalanche at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya

Abstract

A massive rock and ice avalanche occurred on the western slope of the Ronti Gad valley in the northern part of Chamoli, Indian Himalaya, on 7 February 7, 2021. The avalanche on the high mountain slope at an elevation of 5600 m above sea level triggered a long runout disaster chain, including rock mass avalanche, debris avalanche, and flood. The disaster chain had a horizontal travel distance of larger than 17,600 m and an elevation difference of 4300 m. In this study, the disaster characteristics and dynamic process were analyzed by multitemporal satellite imagery. The results show that the massive rock and ice avalanche was caused by four large expanding discontinuity planes. The disaster chain was divided into five zones by satellite images and field observation, including source zone, transition zone, dynamic entrainment zone, flow deposition zone, and flood zone. The entrainment effect and melting water were recognized as the main causes of the long-runout distance. Based on the seismic wave records and field videos, the time progress of the disaster was analyzed and the velocity of frontal debris at different stages was calculated. The total analyzed disaster duration was 1247 s, and the frontal debris velocity colliding with the second hydropower station was approximately 23 m/s. This study also carried out the numerical simulation of the disaster by rapid mass movement simulation (RAMMS). The numerical results reproduced the dynamic process of the debris avalanche, and the mechanism of long-runout avalanche was further verified by parametric study. Furthermore, this study discussed the potential causes of disaster and flood and the roles of satellite images and seismic networks in the monitoring and early-warning.

Keywords

• Rock and ice avalanche
• Disaster chain
• Long-runout
• Entrainment
• Flood