Spatiotemporal analysis of African swine fever spread in wild boar population in Russian Federation, 2007–2022

Abstract

African swine fever is a transboundary disease of all members of Suidae family andit causes economic damage to the pigindustry and ecology of wild boar as a species. The ASF epidemiology is complex andit is specifiedby the mechanismsof the agent’s transmission in susceptible animal populations. Choiceof measure saimed to control and prevent the disease spreadin the wild boar population depends mainly on the routes of the disease introduction and stage or phase of the epizootic process. Prevention of the ASFV introduction from an infected region to a free one is the back bone in the infection prevention. Therefore, there search was aimed at the spatiotemporal analysis of African swine feveroutbreaks in the wild boar population in the Russian Federation in 2007–2022 and identification of geographical are as that poser is kof new disease epidemics. The analysis was performed using retrospective space-timescan statistics, which does not require data on the wild boar population and which can beused for the assessment of the possibility of new ASFoutbreak occurrence upon availability of just data on the reported disease case sand out breaks. As are sult of spatiotem poral cluster analysis, 24 clusters of ASF out breaks were identified based on the laboratory-confirmed data on the infection in boars found dead, and 22 clusters in hunted wildboars. The analysis results demonstrated spatial heterogeneity of the outbreak cluster distribution in population of wildboarsdied of the disease and a significant expansion of the passive surveillance geography. Importance and necessity of the enhanced passive surve illance of African swinefever in susceptible animals is demonstrated. The proposed methodcan beused for regular scanning of age ographic region for the presence of developing zone sand areasat risk of re-emerging ASFoutbreaks in the wildboar population at different spatial scales.

Keywords

• african swine fever
• cluster analysis
• confidence
• wild boar
• surveillance
• relative risk