When Outcomes Diverge: Age and Cardiovascular Risk as Determinants of Mortality and ICU Admission in COVID-19

Abstract

Background: Hospital mortality and admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) are markers of disease severity in COVID-19 patients. Cardiovascular co-morbidities are one of the main determinants of negative outcomes. In this study we investigated the impact of cardiovascular co-morbidities on mortality and admission to the ICU in first-wave COVID-19 patients. Methods: A multicenter, retrospective, cohort study. A total of 1077 patients were analyzed for mortality and ICU admission. Cardiovascular risk factors were explored as determinants of the outcomes after correction for other confounders. Results: In the multivariable model, after correction for age, only a history of heart failure remained independently associated (p = 0.0013) with mortality (hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.62). Age showed a mortality risk increase of 8% per year (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.10, p = 0.001). The transition from ward to the ICU had, as a single determinant, the age, but in a reversed fashion (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 0.98, p = 0.0002). Conclusions: Once adjusted for the main determinant of mortality (age) heart failure only remained independently associated with mortality. Admission to the ICU was less likely for elderly patients. This may reflect the catastrophic impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in terms of ICU bed availability in Lombardy, leading to a selection process for ICU admission.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• heart failure
• cardiovascular risk factors