Allocation of grassland, livestock and arable based on the spatial and temporal analysis for food demand in China

Abstract

To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current (1998–2012) per-capita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020. The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national per-capita consumption of grain ration declined by about 36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consu-ming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consu-ming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different provinces of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about 3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 provinces in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.

Keywords

• arable land equivalent unit (ALEU)|food equivalent unit (FEU)|food security|grassland agriculture|time trend prediction