System Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Power System Supply Side Morphological Development with Dual Carbon Targets

Abstract

In order to simulate the impacts of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on power system supply side transformation from, the system dynamics method is used to analyze the main influencing factors for carbon emissions in the process of power structure transformation and their correlations under four different development scenarios. The evolution of power generation structure and power carbon emission in four development paths are studied. The results show that the power system supply side transformation would be affected by many factors. Under the premise of policy support, the development of market absorption mechanism and absorption technology would contribute to the transformation of the power generation structure, which is of great significance to the realization of the dual carbon targets.

Keywords

• carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals
• supply side
• carbon emissions
• system dynamics