Comparing Current and Future Land Suitability for Growing Rainfed Corn (<i>Zea mays</i>) in Georgia, USA

Abstract

Land suitability (LS) classifications are essential for efficient and sustainable agricultural land use. With climate change, future LS classifications are necessary to ensure that crop growth remains sustainable and prevents land degradation. This study develops a current LS classification for rainfed corn (Zea mays) growth in the state of Georgia, USA, which is validated using historical census data on yield, acres planted, and corn crop lost. Significant (p < 0.05) differences were found between yield, acres planted, and crop loss percentage across LS classes for many years. Soil factors (Ph and soil texture) showed significant differences in fewer years compared to climate and topography factors, as soil factors can be altered by management practices such as liming and irrigation. Future LS classes determined by climate factors indicated a shift to the northwest of 150–300 km by the year 2100 based on the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. The northwards shift in more suitable land due to rising maximum temperatures is expected to limit rainfed corn growth in Georgia in the future. As urban areas become more suitable for corn growth, farmers may need to plant crops earlier, irrigate, or switch to different crops. These results have important implications for agricultural planning and policy in the state of Georgia.

Keywords

• land suitability
• climate change
• corn
• spatial distribution