Historical Trends in Cold‐Season Mid‐Latitude Cyclones in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract

Abstract The Great Lakes Region (GLR) of North America is at the intersection of multiple extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks, and the region's cold‐season climate is heavily influenced by the large temperature gradients and intense precipitation associated with these cyclones. The goal of this study is to understand how ETCs are changing within a warming climate. Historical GLR cyclone characteristics from 1959 to 2021 are examined using a storm tracking algorithm and the ERA‐5 atmospheric reanalysis. Of the 886 cyclones identified, half are the large long‐track cyclones that are typically included in ETC studies, and half are smaller short‐track cyclones that, while not always considered in ETC studies, still have an important impact on the GLR with significant precipitation trends. While all cyclones exhibit strong interannual variability, storm trajectories appear to be migrating northward and, most notably, the cyclones are becoming warmer and wetter at a rate faster than the background climate.

Keywords

• extratropical cyclones
• great lakes region
• historical climate trends