Introducing Uncertainty in Risk Calculation along Roads Using a Simple Stochastic Approach

Abstract

Based on a previous risk calculation study conducted along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using a stochastic simulation by introducing variability into most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to those of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, and it can be used for poorly documented cases to compensate for a lack of data. This approach tends to minimize risk or question risk calculations.

Keywords

• landslide
• rockfall
• risk
• stochastic
• uncertainty
• transportation corridors