Nonlinear dynamics and optimal control of a fractional order cotton leaf curl virus model incorporating climate change influences

Abstract

This work investigates the transmission dynamics of a proposed fractional-order cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) model considering the effects of climate change. High temperatures resulting from climate change and global warming significantly impact the cotton crop and CLCuV transmission, causing substantial economic losses for farmers and agricultural industries. The study aims to address these impacts and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting well-being and healthy lives. The characteristics of the CLCuV model’s solution are examined, including equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number. The stability of equilibrium points is analyzed in relation to key parameters, and sensitivity analysis of controllable parameters is performed. Additionally, optimal management strategies for controlling CLCuV spread are explored, aiming for minimal cost, improved health, and reduced climate change hazards. Numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical findings.

Keywords

• Climate action
• Equilibrium points
• Stability analysis
• Fractional Caputo derivative
• Cotton leaf curl virus