Predictive Performance of Ultrasound-Determined Non-Alcoholic Fatty Pancreas Disease Severity for Intermediate and High Risk of Coronary Heart Disease

Abstract

Purpose To evaluate non-alcoholic fatty pancreas disease severity on ultrasound (US-determined NAFPD) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) and to evaluate its predictive value for intermediate/high CHD risk compared with US-determined non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (US-determined NAFLD) severity. Materials and Methods A retrospective analysis of 544 young adults, aged 18–40 years, was performed. NAFPD and NAFLD were classified as absent, mild, moderate, and severe. CHD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Correlation, multivariate logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to compare the predictive performance. Results FRS increased with increasing US-determined NAFPD severity (r = 0.624, p < 0.001), with a concomitant increase in the odds ratio for intermediate/high CHD risk. There was no difference between the predictive performance of US-determined NAFLD and NAFPD severities for intermediate/ high CHD risk (p = 0.17). The combination of US-determined NAFPD and NAFLD severities significantly improved the differentiation between intermediate and high CHD risk (predictive value, 0.807; p < 0.001). Conclusion US-determined NAFPD severity was well-correlated with FRS and associated with the prevalence of intermediate/high CHD risk. The combination of US-determined NAFPD and NAFLD severities may be useful for predicting CHD risk.

Keywords

• pancreatic diseases
• coronary heart disease
• non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
• predictive value of tests
• ultrasonography