ACTA VŠFS (Dec 2015)
Ohlson´s Model and its Prediction Ability in Comparison with Selected Bankruptcy Models in Conditions of Czech SMEs
Abstract
In this paper are presented the results of a study examining the ability of Ohlson’s Logit model assessing and predicting the financial condition development of SMEs in comparison with the other models outcomes. Ohlson´s model was created using logit regression, which allows in the evaluation of the financial situation involve qualitative and discrete variables. The aim of the study is to determine whether the method used to derive the model influences the final assessment of the financial condition and indication of bankruptcy. The solution is based on the comparison of the resulting assessment of these four models, value of which were calculated on the same sample of Czech firms. As compared models were selected Z-score model, derived in the terms of US enterprises, IN05 model, which was derived in the conditions of Czech companies and Taffer´s model, derived in the conditions of UK firms. The sample consisted of 1996 small and medium firms in the manufacturing industry in Czech Republic. Data were obtained from the database of Albertina for the period of the years 2012 and 2013. It was found that the assessment of the firm´s financial situation matches in case of the results of Ohlson´s model and Taffler´s model, greater differences were found between the resulting values of Ohlson´s and Taffler´s model on one side and IN05 and Altman's model on the other side. Ohlson´s model and the Taffler´s model confirmed a good financial situation of companies in about 90 per cent of firms, Altman´s model and IN05 model in about 40 per cent of firms. The influence of the method used to derive the model on the assessment of the financial condition of companies was not proven.
