Future Studies with a Scenario-Writing Approach to the Effects of Behavioral Geography on Tourism Dealing with Infectious Diseases and COVID-19

Abstract

Tourists became carriers of Covid 19 disease and, eventually, became victims of the disease on their own. In this study, we aim to identify the key factors of behavioral geography affecting the tourism situation of Shiraz metropolis when facing infectious diseases and Covid-19 and scenario-building with a future-studies approach. The present study, in terms of purpose is applied research which has been conducted in terms of survey method at the exploratory level and based on the future-studies approach. The propulsive forces are determined by the Delphi method, and then these factors are determined based on the degree of importance level and uncertainty, prioritization ,and the most critical factors, and the software-Mic Mac- is used to write possible scenarios. In the scripting stage, 34 general variables were identified and defined in this software. Findings indicate that among these variables, behavioral behavior, immigration, inflation and social capital are the most influential key factors of behavioral geography influencing the tourism industry of Shiraz metropolis dealing with infectious diseases.

Keywords

• behavioral geography
• awareness space
• futurology
• scenario planning
• shiraz metropolis