Risk of Tropical Cyclones and Floods to Power Grids in Southeast and East Asia

Abstract

Abstract Power grids play a critical role in modern society, serving as the lifeline of a well-functioning economy. This article presents a first large-scale study on the risk estimation of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced winds and coastal floods, which can widely impact power grids in Southeast and East Asia. Our comprehensive risk model incorporates detailed infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and government power grid maps, along with global hazard maps and vulnerability curves. The results reveal that the estimated expected annual damages from TCs and coastal floods to OSM-mapped assets account for approximately 0.07% (0.00–0.38%) and 0.02% (0.00–0.02%) of the total GDP of the study area, respectively. We analyzed the main sources of uncertainty in the risk model and emphasized the importance of understanding asset vulnerability. These results highlight the urgent need to strengthen power infrastructure to withstand the impacts of natural hazards, and the significance of reliable risk information for improving power grid design and planning. Focusing on developing more region-specific infrastructure data and vulnerability curves will improve the accuracy of risk estimation and provide valuable insights not only for the electricity sector but also for customers of other infrastructure systems that heavily rely on a stable supply of electricity.

Keywords

• Asset level
• Coastal floods
• Power grids
• Risk analysis
• Tropical cyclones
• Vulnerability curves