The impact of fluctuating international fertiliser prices and exchange rates on domestic fertiliser prices in Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between domestic and international prices of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea fertilisers together with exchange rates in Türkiye using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model on monthly data for the period of January 2011 to September 2022. The result of the study provides empirical evidence about the presence of asymmetries in the short and long-run among these fertilisers. The findings of the study confirm that international prices of di-ammonium phosphate and urea fertilisers have a symmetric effect in the long-run and exchange rate of the Turkish lira to US dollars has an asymmetric effect on the domestic prices of fertilisers in the short run. This is the first study in Türkiye to delineate the dynamic simultaneous interaction among these markets and its findings can be extremely useful for academicians, and policymakers to make decisions regarding the market structure of countries that do not have sufficient domestic resources for fertiliser supply and are dependent on imports.

Keywords

• di-ammonium phosphate
• nardl
• price and exchange rate transmission
• urea