Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik untuk Kabupaten Bireuen Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP

Abstract

Increasing electrical energy consumption in a region due to economic development must be anticipated as early as possible in order to ensure that electricity is available sufficiently in affordable price. One method for the anticipation is forecasting electrical energy consumption. This paper aims to forecast electrical energy consumption using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) software for study case in Bireuen District. Based on historical data since 2012 in form of population development, number of customers, electrification ratio, energy intensity, and profile of electrical energy consumption, an analysis is carried out to forecast the future electrical energy demand in Bireuen District until 2026. The analysis predict that in 2026, the number of electricity customers will reach 183,016 customers with an average growth of 4.7% per year, and electricity consumption will reach 563.02 GWh with an average growth of 10.67% per year. In addition, the electrification ratio will continue to increase to 99.42% in 2026 while the energy elasticity will continue to decline to reach 0.61 in that year.

Keywords

• electrical energy
• electrical energy consumption
• electrification ratio
• energy elasticity
• LEAP