Cardiovascular Diabetology (Jun 2019)

Heart failure and the prognostic impact and incidence of new-onset of diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

  • B. Zareini,
  • Rasmus Rørth,
  • Anders Holt,
  • Ulrik M. Mogensen,
  • Christian Selmer,
  • Gunnar Gislason,
  • Morten Schou,
  • Lars Køber,
  • Christian Torp-Pedersen,
  • Morten Lamberts,
  • Søren Lund Kristensen

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12933-019-0883-4
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 18, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

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Abstract Background Prevalent diabetes at the time of heart failure (HF) diagnosis is associated with a higher risk of death, but the incidence and prognostic importance of new-onset diabetes in patients with established HF remains unknown. Methods Patients with a first hospitalization for HF in the period 2003–2014 were included and stratified according to history of diabetes. Annual incidence rates of new-onset diabetes were calculated and time-dependent multivariable Cox regression models were used to compare the risk of death in patients with prevalent and new-onset diabetes with patients without diabetes as reference. The model was adjusted for age, sex, duration of HF, educational level and comorbidity. Covariates were continuously updated throughout follow-up. Results A total of 104,522 HF patients were included in the study, of which 21,216 (19%) patients had diabetes at baseline, and 8164 (10%) developed new-onset diabetes during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Patients with new-onset diabetes and prevalent diabetes were slightly younger than patients without diabetes (70 vs. 74 and 77, respectively), more likely to be men (62% vs. 60% and 54%), and had more comorbidities expect for ischemic heart disease, hypertension and chronic kidney disease which were more prevalent among patients with prevalent diabetes. Incidence rates of new-onset diabetes increased from around 2 per 100 person-years in the first years following HF hospitalization up to 3 per 100 person-years after 5 years of follow-up. A total of 61,424 (59%) patients died during the study period with event rates per 100 person-years of 21.5 for new-onset diabetes, 17.9 for prevalent diabetes and 13.9 for patients without diabetes. Compared to patients without diabetes, new-onset diabetes was associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.42–1.52) and prevalent diabetes was associated with an intermediate risk (HR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16–1.21). Conclusion Following the first HF hospitalization, the incidence of new-onset diabetes was around 2% per year, rising to 3% after 5 years of follow-up. New-onset diabetes was associated with an increased risk of death, compared to HF patients with prevalent diabetes (intermediate risk) and HF patients without diabetes.

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