An international comparison of inflation credibility surveys

Abstract

This paper analyses the methodology used in assessing inflation credibility (i.e. perceptions of the accuracy of historical inflation rates) in countries targeting inflation, and compares the approaches used in New Zealand, South Africa and Sweden. The results indicate an implied inverse (or negative) relationship in all but one instance, between the direction of actual inflation and the perception of inflation among the respondents. The analysis also shows a lack of knowledge about inflation and price increases among South African respondents, which is absent from similar surveys in New Zealand and Sweden. Important research questions identified include possible links between inflation credibility and the adoption date of inflation targeting, as well as the type and range of targets used.