Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Evaluation Models of Payments on Value Recovery Instruments

Abstract

This article studies the restructuring of Ukraine’s sovereign bonds and sovereign guaranteed bonds to private creditors in 2015. We analyse the prerequisites of the debt issue and the conditions of implemented restructuring deal, and make a comparison with the worldwide restructuring practice. The research determines the conditions under which payments on value recovery instruments will take place. The value recovery instruments are securities tied to the annual GDP growth rate with maturity date due 2040. This paper shows the key factors that influence the amount of payments and leads to the corresponding assumptions. We built an evaluation model for payments of the value recovery instruments using the Monte Carlo methods. As a result, all models that are presented draw to a conclusion about a disadvantage of the implementation of tools for the economy of Ukraine. All proposed alternatives of restructuring and debt relief are presented.

Keywords

• sovereign debt
• debt
• default risk
• default
• debt security
• value recovery instruments
• debt management
• restructuring
• simulation models