Risk Analysis of Transport Requalification Projects in the Urban Mobility Problem Caused by a Mining Disaster

Abstract

Background: This paper proposes a risk analysis of transport requalification projects in the urban mobility problem caused by a mining disaster related to irregular rock salt extraction in the city of Maceió, Brazil. Methods: The model is composed of three main steps: problem definition, risk management, and decision analysis. For this purpose, we used the Picture Fuzzy-Delphi method for data collection and experts’ judgment elicitation and the Delphi method was used to assess the problem without interference from others. In addition, we used Picture Fuzzy Sets (PFSs) to incorporate uncertain information in the decision-making process. Results: The results of the proposed model demonstrated consistency and relevance to the discussion. The application of methods shows the risks of the project based on a general perspective. It evaluates the sustainability tripod: economic, environmental, and social points of view, assessing the occurrence risk and intensity of the risk. Conclusions: The main objective of the work was achieved; however, some limitations of this study are related to the methods used to assess risks and the options of projects of requalification available at the moment of data analysis. This paper contributes because it systematizes the risk management of projects related to requalification in urban mobility.

Keywords

• transportation
• sustainability
• risk management
• group decision-making
• fuzzy Delphi method
• Copeland method