Analysis Of Spearman Rank Correlation & Linear Regression Of Atmospheric Stability And Cloud Tops Temperature Of Himawari-8 IR Satellite Images (Case Study Of Hail On May 22, 2022)

Abstract

This research is based on cases of hail that caused flooding in Binjai City on May 22, 2022. This study aims to see the correlation and regression of the Atmospheric Stability index value on cloud top temperature data from the Himawari-8 satellite imagery. So that the ERA-5 reanalysis data can be used to obtain cloud top temperatures in predicting hail events. The indices used in this study are CAPE, KI and TTI. The data used is located in Binjai City with correlation testing from 00UTC – 24UTC on May 22, 2022. Supported data is used in the form of sea surface temperature and wind conditions and looks at the causes of hail at the research location. The method used is Spearman's rank correlation with the results obtained in the form of a correlation value at the K index of -0.651, a correlation of the TT index of -0.563, and a correlation of the CAPE index of -0.348. The simple linear regression results also show a negative gradient line. This shows that the increase in the value of the stability index is in line with the decrease in cloud top temperature. So that the stability index data can be used as a benchmark in estimating cloud top temperatures in the case of convective cloud formation which causes hail.

Keywords

• atmosphere stability, hail, analysis of spearman, correlation, himawari-8, linear regression