Ekonomìčnij Vìsnik Nacìonalʹnogo Tehnìčnogo Unìversitetu Ukraïni "Kiïvsʹkij Polìtehnìčnij Institut" (May 2018)
MODELING THE OPTIMAL DISTRIBUTION TO REDUCE INVESTMENT RISKS IN THE CONDITIONS OF TRANSFORMATIONAL ECONOMY
Abstract
In modern conditions of economic activity of economic entities involve risks. Success largely depends on the ability of the management and mitigation of risks. In modern times this problem is one of the most important in the economy – it is of great interest among various scholars and researchers and certainly deserves a comprehensive study. The risk is the possibilities that are associated with overcoming uncertainty in a situation of choice, in implementation of which it is possible to calculate the implied probability of achieving a certain result, as well as possible losses and deviations from the goal. Investment risk describes the probability of unforeseen financial loss, its level in the assessment is defined as the deviation of the expected income from the investment of the average or calculated values. Therefore, the assessment of investment risk is always associated with the assessment of expected revenues and their losses. However, risk assessment is a subjective process. Whatever existed mathematical models for calculating the risk curve and its exact magnitude, in each case, the investor needs to determine the risk of investment in the company. This article describes the principles of formation of investment risks, their main groups and identified the key groups of risks affecting the project: financial, credit, market and liquidity risk. Reporting of the selected companies, which requires investment, were numerically identified groups of risks using a variety of approaches and methodologies. For optimal allocation, given existing risk was elected probity model to determine the potential default of the investment project, including the distribution of probabilities of occurrence of each type of risk in the project as a whole. To address these risks, we solved the optimization problem, which includes the ability to control funds raised were directed to the repayment risk of the share of each type so that the total probability of bankruptcy of the investment project was minimal.
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